Armen Ayvazyan, Doctor of Political Science, HORIZON 2005-12-14

6. On the strategic importance of Javakhk

The preservation of Armenian Javakhk and its vital importance for
strategic security of Armenia is being ignored. The de-Armenization
of Javakhk has potentially disastrous consequences for Armenia.

First, Armenia's northern border, currently reliable thanks to
Javakhk's Armenian demography, will become no less dangerous than the
Armenian-Turkish border. Fortifying the northern border and stationing
troops there will require huge resources from the Armenian budget. We
must also take into account the plans for resettling into the region
with Meskhetian Turks, promoted by Turkey and supported by the European
structures, which, if realized, will automatically invite a blockade
of Armenia from the north.

Second, Armenian-populated Javakhk with its natural loyalty to the
interests of Armenia and attachment to their Armenian roots is a factor
that seriously restrains Tbilisi from officially strengthening its
strategic partnership with Turkey and Azerbaijan. In the absence of
this factor, the Georgian policy would take on an openly anti-Armenian

Third, we must not forget about Georgian appetites with regard to
the northern Armenian region of Lori: in the past whenever political
conditions were favorable, Georgian aspirations were realized in the
form of aggression and occupation of Lori (first, at the end of 1918,
then again at the end of 1920 and the beginning of 1921).

Fourth, the expulsion of Armenians from Javakhk will mean the
further reduction of Armenian-populated territory in the historical
homeland of Armenians - the Armenian Highland. In the context of
Turkish-Azerbaijani designs aimed at elimination of Armenia such
developments will become simply another logical step and the extension
of genocidal policies.

Finally, in the current conditions of national demographic crisis,
we cannot afford to lose even a single Armenian village. It is worth
noting that threat of ethnic cleansing is hanging over more than 140
Armenian towns and villages in Javakhk and adjoining areas.

It is time to recognize the political problem of Javakhk, and to
start working in an effective and coordinated manner to solve the
accumulated problems. The widespread violations of human rights and
freedoms of the Armenian population by the Georgian central government
must be stopped. Playing down the gravity of the situation by Yerevan
for internal and external political reasons or with the hope that if
it is ignored it will go away, will only contribute to the further
deterioration of the conditions in Javakhk and rising tension as
Javakhtsis (in Armenia, Javakhk and abroad) recognize that the
deterioration has crossed the point of no return. And if military
conflict erupts there, Armenia will be dragged into it one way or
another (with all negative consequences for Armenia) under the growing
pressure from hundreds of thousands of natives of Javakhk (citizens
of Armenia as well as those who live abroad) and the patriotic part
of the society, including the veterans of Artsakh Liberation War,
who have made sacrifices to protect Armenians' right to exist on
their native lands.